
Who Truly Prevailed? Untangling Claims of Victory After the 12-Day Israel-Iran-US Conflict
The United States, Iran, and Israel have all declared victory in this 12-day conflict once the ceasefire was officially announced. These are the gains made by each.
Iran and Israel declared on Tuesday that they had reached a peace agreement and will follow US President Donald Trump’s proposed truce, following a period of uncertainty and misunderstanding.
The announcement follows a tumultuous 12-hour period that sparked concerns about a potential regional conflict. Iran targeted the Al Udeid air base in Doha shortly after Qatar closed its airspace on Monday night. Iran launched the attack as payback for American bombings of its three nuclear installations over the weekend.
In an indication that the Israel-Iran war may escalate, neighbouring nations Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates have also closed their airspace.
However, Trump claimed on his platform Truth Social that he had secured a truce between Israel and Iran, which would be put into effect within the next day, following the conclusion of Iran’s missile attack.
All three sides in this 12-day conflict—Iran, Israel, and the United States—have declared victory now that the ceasefire has been established.
Player 1: Israel declares victory after eliminating the missile and nuclear threats
The IDF “controlled Tehran’s skies” as it sought to accomplish its objective of eradicating the threat of nuclear and ballistic weapons, according to the most recent statement from Netanyahu’s office.
The US joining the war and bombing Iran—something Netanyahu has been attempting to accomplish for the past thirty years—was Israel’s greatest victory in the last twelve days.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the US was not involved in Operation Rising Lion and that Israel had been acting “unilaterally” in the days prior to the US strikes on Iran.
A week later, the United States, under Trump’s leadership, demonstrated its continued support for Israel.
Israel also benefited from the change in attention away from its ongoing war crimes in the Gaza Strip, where at least 30 people are killed every day while waiting for food and other necessities at aid sites.
Player 2: Trump and the US congratulate themselves on bringing about “world peace”
Under Donald Trump, the United States claimed to have refrained from intervening in Israel’s strikes on Iran until it “ran out of patience” and did so, hence increasing the level of tension in the Middle East.
By placing a few B-2 bombers on Guam, the US staged an attack to fool the world into believing it would strike, and then it quietly carried out the strikes in Iran.
Trump urged the “Middle East bully” to cooperate for peace in his White House speech, threatening that future assaults would be “far greater and a lot easier.”
The US president also asserted that Iranian nuclear sites, particularly the Fordow nuclear plant, had sustained extensive damage. Experts say Iran may have outwitted Washington and protected its nuclear supply, but uncertainties still exist.
However, Trump was confronted with widespread demonstrations, cyberbullying, and a group of senators prepared to impeach him for his “unconstitutional act” and for jeopardising the global geopolitical order shortly after the incident.
Therefore, the US could not risk escalating the fight, even after Iran attacked US military outposts in Iraq and Qatar. It was discovered hours after the attack that Iran had notified Qatar of the strikes, which led to the shutdown of airspace and the base’s evacuation of US military personnel.
As a result, both Iran and the United States benefited from the strike on the Al Udeid air base. Why? because Tehran’s “early notice” allowed Iran to demonstrate its might and prevented the US from losing any people. Then Trump began to act as the “peacemaker” by declaring a truce.
Player 3: Iran says it has defeated the ‘Zionist government’
Iran has also declared victory in the 12-day conflict, despite seemingly suffering the most damage. Iran retaliated, inflicting equal damage on Israel while Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remained hidden in a bunker.
Iran, which is notorious for supporting militant organisations as part of its “Axis of Resistance” and hasn’t launched an attack in almost three centuries, behaved in a controlled manner, particularly after the US hit three of its nuclear installations.
Despite damage to its nuclear sites and the murder of its nuclear experts by Mossad, Tehran may not have lost much, despite the US and Israel’s claims that they had halted and destroyed Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran was aware that the world could not afford another conflict, particularly one with the United States at its core, given the conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine, and Africa.
Because of this, Iran not only decided to give advance notice before attacking the US military base, but it also changed its mind after rejecting the ceasefire plan.
Khamenei’s warning was directed at Israel, a “enemy” of the Islamic Republic since its founding, even after the United States hit Iran. Iran kept firing missiles at Israel “until the last minute” before the ceasefire deadline in light of this.
Although there is a ceasefire, tensions still exist
All three nations will keep claiming victory in this 12-day conflict, according to Ali Vaez, director of Iran for the International Crisis Group, who spoke to the New York Times.
“The United States can say it has set back Iran’s nuclear program, Israel can say it has weakened Iran, a regional adversary, and Iran can say it has survived and pushed back against much stronger military powers,” he told the New York Times.
Although everyone has praised the ceasefire in the Middle East, the reality is that it is quite precarious. Trump must now try to get the US-Iran nuclear deal back on the table in spite of this ceasefire.
In addition, Israel and Hamas are still at war, and as the Gaza conflict approaches its third year, hundreds of captives’ lives are still at risk.
Israel and Lebanon are still at odds, as seen by the Israeli attack that killed one person in the southern part of the nation on Tuesday, just after the ceasefire with Iran.