Study Warns of 'Doomsday Scenario' in Using AI for Nuclear Launch Decisions

Study Warns of ‘Doomsday Scenario’ in Using AI for Nuclear Launch Decisions

by Prasanna June 18, 2025 0 Comment

An automated nuclear weapon launch decision system would eventually give AI complete control over nuclear arsenals, endangering humanity, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said.

In its 2025 yearbook, SIPRI, the world’s leading institute for conflict research, stated that using artificial intelligence (AI) to control nuclear weapon systems represented a catastrophic risk to civilisation.

An automated decision-making system for the firing of nuclear weapons would eventually give artificial intelligence complete control over nuclear arsenals, endangering humanity, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said.

“We see the warning signs of a new nuclear arms race at a particularly dangerous and unstable moment for geopolitics,” SIPRI Director Dan Smith warned in the introduction of the yearbook, highlighting the likelihood of a new nuclear arms race and the difficulties in maintaining nuclear arms control.

“If the decision to launch nuclear weapons is ever fully handed over to AI, we’d be approaching true doomsday scenarios,” he stated.

According to the SIPRI research, nearly all nine nuclear-armed countries—the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel—continued their extensive nuclear modernisation programs in 2024, adding newer and updating their current arsenals.

In January 2025, there were an estimated 12,241 warheads in the world’s arsenal, of which 9,614 were in military stocks for possible use.Of those warheads, an estimated 3,912 were used with aircraft and missiles, while the remaining ones were kept in central storage.

On ballistic missiles, about 2,100 of the deployed warheads were maintained in a high operational alert status. According to SIPRI, China may currently retain some of these warheads on missiles during times of peace, albeit nearly all of them belonged to the US or Russia.

According to the assessment, the US and Russia together own over 90% of all nuclear weapons.

China currently possesses at least 600 nuclear warheads, according to SIPRI. Since 2023, China’s nuclear arsenal has increased by roughly 100 additional warheads annually, outpacing that of any other nation. In three sizable desert plains in the country’s north and three mountainous regions in the east, China had built or was almost finished with 350 additional intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos by January 2025.

In 2024, Pakistan also kept building up fissile material and developing new delivery technologies, indicating that its nuclear arsenal may grow during the next ten years.

North Korea’s military nuclear program remains a top priority and a key component of its national security strategy. According to SIPRI, the nation currently has about 50 warheads completed, has enough fissile material to make up to 40 more, and is speeding up the manufacturing of more fissile material.