IMD Predicts Cyclonic Storm Asna: More Rain Expected in Gujarat
Monsoon has been unusually active over northwest India in August and this pattern of rainfall is expected to continue in the first week of September.
Monsoon has been unusually active over northwest India in the month of August and this pattern of rainfall is expected to continue in the first week of September, meteorologists said on Thursday predicting extremely heavy rainfall in parts of rain-battered Gujarat at least till Friday.
A deep depression over Saurashtra has caused severe flooding over parts of Gujarat; a low-pressure system over east India brought heavy rains to eastern states; and Delhi-NCR received a few spells of heavy rain with a monsoon trough near Delhi.
The deep depression over Saurashtra and Kutch is likely to intensify into cyclonic storm Asna over northeast Arabian Sea by Friday, the India Meteorological Department said. Extremely heavy rainfall very likely to continue at isolated places of Saurashtra and Kutch till Friday and decrease thereafter.
“The deep depression which has been sustaining for a few days over Saurashtra will find even more favourable conditions to intensify into a cyclone over Arabian Sea. It will get energy from the ocean and get refuelled. Wind shear is low. The Madden Julian Oscillation is in a favourable position. Circumstances are favourable for intensification over Arabian Sea,” said a senior IMD official.
Remarking that it is unusual for a system to emerge over land and become a cyclone after it enters the ocean, the official said it is not unprecedented. This has happened twice in the past including a depression that emerged over Saurashtra and became a cyclone over Arabian Sea, the official said.
The low-pressure over Central and adjoining north Bay of Bengal is likely to cause very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall likely over Odisha, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe, and heavy to very heavy rainfall over North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and Telangana in the next two to three days.
More rain is expected over northwest India, including Delhi NCR, from September 1 onwards. “Rain will reduce over the next two days over northwest India. But rain will pick up again from September 1 when the monsoon trough shifts again to its normal position. It has shifted to the south of its normal position now. We can also expect isolated heavy to very heavy rain over the region on September 2 and 3,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology at Skymet Weather.
Since June 1, the country has recorded 7% excess rain with 17% excess over central India; 2% excess over northwest India; 18% excess over Peninsular India and 11% deficiency over east and northeast India.
In August, there was 15.9% excess rainfall over the country with 31.4% excess over northwest India; 7.2% excess over east and northeast India; 17.2% excess over central India and 1.3% deficiency over Peninsular India.
Over northwest India, there is 76% excess rain since June 1; 39% excess over east Rajasthan; 27% deficiency over Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh; 29% deficiency over Punjab; 22% deficiency over Himachal Pradesh and 16% deficiency over Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi subdivision.
“Monsoon is in extremely active condition over the country. There are two weather systems — over Rajasthan and Gangetic West Bengal. Already, there is extremely heavy rain over Gujarat already. Very heavy rain will continue over the region. East India will also get very heavy rain. Delhi NCR, Haryana, Punjab are expected to record sporadic rain and thundershowers during the week. Rainfall will increase,” M Mohapatra, director general, IMD had said last week.
Development of cyclonic storms in the month of August over the Arabian Sea is a rare activity. However, during 1891-2023, 3 cyclonic storms developed over the AS (1976, 1964, 1944). The cyclone in 1976 developed over Odisha, moved west-northwestwards, emerged into Arabian Sea, made a looping track and weakened over northwest Arabian Sea near Oman coast. The 1944
cyclone also intensified after emerging into Arabian Sea and weakened over Sea. Another short cyclone developed near South Gujarat coast and weakened near coast in 1964.
Similarly, over the BoB during last 132 years, there have been a total of 28 such systems in the month of August, IMD said.
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